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Lead-free Solder and the Occam Factor
September 3, 2007 |Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
Lead-free solder percent of Global sales is 55.2% in Q2-'07, up only 1.5% from 53.7% in Q1-'07. That's reported in the new IPC Solder Quarterly Survey.
There are some very interesting changes--and non-changes. We'll have to watch for emerging patterns:
Americas--almost no change, old 63-37 tin-lead solder still maintains 79% share. Asia--excluding China and Japan--lead- free is up from 58.2% to 69% (could be due to increased total production in Viet Nam, Malaysia, and Thailand). China--lead-free is DOWN 11%, from 75.2% to 64.1%! (That IS noteworthy! It may be an early sign of lead-free growth stalling or reversing).
Most other regions were static, except in Japan where lead-free increased to 68.7%, up 4%.
What's going on? What's going to happen to lead-free solder growth? How will the emergence of the OCCAM Process impact near and intermediate term conversions to or from lead-free solder?
It is OEM decisions that will answer all of the questions so we must consider the three major factors that will influence those decisions. Poor lead-free reliability is the number 1 concern to OEMs and consumers.
Manufacturing cost before the expense of returns is certainly important to manufacturers. To all of us, environmental friendliness does not take 2nd place to anything.
Anecdotal evidence of massive equipment failures has emerged where open circuits, due to thermal cycling of lead-free solder joints, may be the cause. Microsoft's X-Box game is an outstanding example, with $1B set aside by the company for repairs.
So we may expect OEMs in the near term to do the following with the help of EMS partners--find fixes, analyze risks product by product, assess liability. Conversions to lead-free will stall in light of concerns and diversion of resources. Don't expect these measures to be publicly announced or to be attributed to lead-free remedies. The OEMs were forced into lead-free. Most have obviously decided that going back to tin-lead solder is not an option because of the negative impact on public relations. Now there's a new option on the table for the long-term--OCCAM.
It could eliminate all solder, lead and lead-free.
In all electronic equipment manufactured in 2007, there will be about 9 trillion solder joints. Occam would replace each of them with a copper plated blind via, connecting build-up traces to component pads.
Analysis of Occam's cost savings -- metals, flux, labor, equipment-- is a current project. They will be huge.
Eliminating solder -- what could be more green?
To learn more about the Occam Process go to www.verdantelectronics.com.
There's a White Paper there and details about a forthcoming Webinar. The first Occam Conference is scheduled for Oct 15th in San Jose, California.
Harvey Miller
Fabfile Onlineharvey@fabfileonline.com